Let the Spin Begin - the Media and the R Word

As late as mid January of 2008, economists surveyed by leading financial publications resulted in a prediction that the US had less than a 50% chance of going into a recession in 2008.

If you listened to the media, you'd think the world was ending. Who are the worst offenders?

I did a search to see how many hits I got on web sites noted below, with hit rates indicated:

Fox News 1530
CNN: 1692
ABC (approximately) 3760
and MSNBC an astounding 23,200!

I wanted to take this into the newspaper arena, and found the following:

The far left leaning San Francisco Chronicle in 2008 alone mentioned a recession 464 times according to their web search - already more than the entire 2007 year! (which came in at 329)

The New York Times.. also left leaning.. 420 in 2007, and already 311 since January 1, 2008.

Compare this to the Washington Times (considered more conservative) which mentions it 149 times in 2007 and 77 times in 2008.

One could speculate on the motivations behind using the R word. Perhaps it's pure drama that drives viewers.

But the media has a responsibility here, and it seems very few are holding them accountable. The more they mention the word recession (whether we are in one or not), the more people assume we are.

ABC, CBS and NBC reported in the first two weeks of 2008 negative stories about a pending or looming recession 32 times. The positive? Mentioned in 8 stories. (Source: Business & Media Institute)

What are the facts? Well a study conducted by Bloomberg of 62 economists released January 9th showed economists predicitng a 1.5% GROWTH in the first half of 2008. This is most definitely weak expansion, but it is far from a recession! The Wall Street Journal reported similar findings, predicting growth of 2% or less, and a 42% chance of recession. The same type of issue holds true for unemployment, also exaggerated by the media. Take the Today Show reporting on January 5th that unemployment moved up to 5% last month, the highest rate in two years. Really? In September of 05, unemployment was also at 5.1%. The 5% rate is the highest in SIXTEEN months, not two years. It's also below the 5.4% 10 year average and the 6% 30 year average. (Source: Business and Media Institute)

I can only speculate on why the media would choose to report the news as they do in an election year or when circulation at some aforementioned newspapers are down (you can guess which ones), but the media owes it to the public to talk about the facts and not use scare tactics, selectively choosing the data it wishes to represent.

Dani