Saturday, November 29, 2008

Neural Networks Explaining Econ & Human Emotion?

In the process of taking my mind off of too many things to count and needing a few minutes break from work, a student post about neural networks and artificial intelligence got me thinking about its application to today's marketplace. Everyone seems to be trying to come up with a theory to explain what is happening today; I am convinced none exists. It is a series of mistakes, blunders, oversimplifications, overcomplications and greed that got us where we are today, but perhaps it is the use of information technology - and not in the systems sense - that could get us out of it.

Technologists have long studied artificial neural networks, or ANNs.. these are often referred to just as neural nets. This is one of those terms that students are often baffled by; but its really simple when you break it down. We can use many analogies; the brain, IT, math.. If we look at the brain, we have a series of neurons.. these aren't the artificial type however. They connect information through synapse connection; in IT this is referred to as a connectionist approach. But the key about this system is that it is highly adaptive; information is constantly exchanged and new networks are created.

Neural nets are used in statistical data tools too; particular those creating models or trying to explain what isn't explained by a regression equation. We can use them to find patterns, to find relationships - perhaps even from an emotional perspective, to explain relationships. Some nodes in this network are those which are inputs... from a human perspective we have all needs on the hierarchy.. from a neurology perspective we have the senses, and so on. They also consist of those nodes which are hidden; in emotions perhaps intentionally; in neuroscience perhaps because they are nothing more than transmitters to create a synapse connection. Then we have outputs; the results of the input nodes and the hidden nodes; this works much the way a network does. In neural nets though, interestingly, only those hidden nodes produce output - one could say that only our hidden motives or internal needs are those that produce change. In a capital market, one could say that this is yet another proof of Smith's Invisible Hand; with human motivation moving markets.

One thing is certain and that is every discipline uses neural nets in their own way but I don't see it being used in economics much; or in emotions and emotional intelligence (EI) analysis much either. We do generally agree that it is taking the simple to create a complex pattern of behavior; the simple human need to be loved to create a complex set of outcomes that is often unexplainable; the brains need for food to take drastic or creative measures to get it; the markets need for profit to make uninformed and albeit seemingly irrational decisions to achieve it.

I was telling my students earlier that one goal of scientists in neural network study is to not necessarily make the network adaptive.. it does a pretty good job of that on its own. But, to be able to measure the weight of each connection to either modify it to produce an intended effect, or weigh its value. This can be used for a variety of purposes; but perhaps explaining emotion and economics (and the connection of the two even) is of most interest to me. If we can modify the inputs or if we can identify the hidden nodes, then perhaps we can explain and even give value to the outputs; this in turn could potentially predict when markets are overreacting, overrationalizing, or even overcorrecting. We can then tweak the value of the output, which would in turn create a new method of explaining what economists try to dumb down to supply and demand.

Another fascinating element is bio neural nets... with biological NNs, each of the nodes functions in units but in parallel; each node appears to understand the motivation and the hidden nodes and then react accordingly. Tasks are clearly distinguished; each node knows what it needs to do and its relationship to other nodes. Perhaps just as in the human brain, this is missing in our marketplace. Perhaps the goal to keep the market competitive has removed the ability for nodes to work in parallel, thus preventing an intended purposeful and intelligent outcome.

Scientists like systems that adapt; after all if we can tweak the input we can tweak the output. But what seems largely missing in most disciplines is the hidden node, which if we are to follow the original intent of neural nets it is to identify and explain the impact of inputs on the hidden nodes, since they are the only direct impact on the output nodes.

Therefore unless we understand the not so obvious hidden motivations of individuals and markets, we can never surely predict an outcome.

I like the idea that the adaptive NNs are capable of learning and understanding, and therefore making a choice by a learned algorithm. Many try to manipulate this; but it doesn't take into consideration those darn pesky hidden nodes which drive neuropsychology in all aspects. I am cautiously optimistic in believing it may drive our economy too; but I just need to figure out exactly how. Large data sets are needed, and parallel implementations are a must - but this requires an imperfect market as opposed to a tangible perfect one; which economists don't seem to enjoy very much.

Nonetheless, I think this is interesting stuff indeed.... maybe we need Recurrent Networks with bidirectional data flow to really understand this market...and right now we have unidirectional inputs without any transparency as to the hidden node.

Fun stuff.

Dani

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Assault on the American Dream?

Anyone listening to the media that has been working hard to pay their obligations, build a life, send their kids to college, pay for healthcare, and prioritize their own debts is probably frustrated at the constant bailouts, greediness of corporations that seem to think there is no room for them to fail and that they are all too big to allow them to file for Chapter 11.. and it can be rather depressing to listen to this.. billions after billions of OUR money being thrown at people who have proven that even in good times, they cannot manage jack. Newsflash - no one is too big or too small to fail, because one of the wonderful things we reap when we are successful is weathering the storms. Without the ability to fail, there is no ability to be successful. Not in the true sense of the word.

I think most annoying is the auto industry and the constant whining, which seems to sound much like "but mommy, it is the teacher's fault that I got a bad grade.." particularly when I hear "we were doing fine until the credit crunch." HUH? Really? You were? According to WHOM? No, you weren't. This is actually called "lying under oath". You were creating cars people didn't want and some were embarrassed to drive, routinely made fun of by Gen Yers (and some X'ers), and even my favorite relatives in the 80+ year category bought their first "foreign" cars with in the last decade.. a big deal to this generation of loyal consumers.. mostly due to quality issues. I heard my grandfather literaly say it was tough to not buy American, but he loves his Toyota. (and still loved me when I backed it into a parked car)

Did it REALLY start just recently when people couldnt "get a loan"? I dont think so. Polls show that most American's aren't that gullible either.. over 90% dont want the bailout consistently regardless of how bad the pollsters design the questions.. so why don't we see Congress telling these guys to take their jets back to Detroit and go suck their thumbs like the crybabies that they are?

Well that is the nature of today's market it seems.. where everyone is too big to fail.. but where do we draw the line? Why is Petsmart reporting greater earnings today and double digit increases over previous quarters? Does it just mean we care more for our pets than our cars? Maybe because they are more reliable than the Big 3's autos.. but another digression. Maybe we love our pets more. Seems we found room on the credit cards for designer pet food, but a Ford with a dash that feels like cardboard? uh uh. There is a big surprise.

What really, really irks me is this notion that the American dream is being assaulted. Yes, we are in some financial hot water - anyone with 1/4 of a brain left knows this. It isn't anything we haven't faced before. It isn't anything we won't face again. It is nothing like what our elders faced in the 20s and 30s. My grandfather has thankfully shared in much detail the pains he and his family went through, and how that shaped who he is today. There is much to learn from the frugality of that generation even once they started making good money. My grandfather has had his couch reupholstered several times, while I keep buying new ones. But that isn't really the point of this either. I do think it is vital for my generation to see this- to see that not all will go well, and you have to get creative and plow through, using whatever ounce of energy you have left. Don't give up, and don't ask for freebies. Where is the fun.. or the dignity, in that? I am sure many of you would agree; you'd rather lose everything than make it on someone else's dime.

The point is that the American dream.. the desire in the heart and soul of Americans to build something for themselves - to not make someone else rich and to work for themselves and their families.. whether as full time contractors choosing who they do work for or outright businesses supplying products and services to those who share our great fate as Americans.. that soul hasn't died.

It won't die because it is in the heart of many of us that is unwavering - in a sense built-in to many who desire the ability to have no maximum capability. We live, even today, in a time where the sky is the limit - how amazing and fabulous is THAT?!

Sometimes .. in times like this when we see billions being thrown at industries that are burning through $6bn or more every month, it is easy to lose our way or for a bit .. even despair.. after all, we work our butts off to make the next mortgage payment or move up or get our kids to a better school (well for those of you that have them!)

I dont hear great Americans saying "but what about me." Instead, they shake their head .. disbelieving how pathetic this situation has become, which started with granting one individual the ability to spend $700bn of our dollars with little to no oversight. What did we expect would happen?

American entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of this economy. The Big 3 might employ a couple million workers, but that is nothing compared to what small businesses employ. Small and medium sized business owners all over this country are revalidating and realigning their core competencies, bringing in new consumers, going global online, checking their numbers, making plans for the future should consumer spending continue on a downward spiral, and making corrections in business plans to weather the storm because they know no one will give them a handout.

My bet is, even if someone did offer them one, they wouldn't want it anyway. The best part about being an entrepreneur is the ability to design ones' own destiny. This cannot be taken away by stupid acts of politics. Another great part about being an entrepreneur is the ability to fail, should you choose or should life or something else get in the way. Failing sucks. I know that first hand. But the best lessons are learned in failure. What lessons are we teaching children who watch big companies fail and get a hand from US? What are we telling entrepreneurs that really do provide a ton of jobs when we just bail out the big ones because.. well.. they are big.. and an afford the Congressional lobbyists? The best feeling is to wake up (or lay awake) one morning or night and say "damn, I just realized..." and voila, you have the epiphany.. and you won't repeat the mistake.

You learn from those mistakes.. pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start over again.. all because you have the HEART to do it. That dedication and perserverence and heart felt soul of the spirit cannot be bought, even for $25 billion.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Feminism's Defeat

I rarely write with little purpose or specific intent. I write books, write letters to friends when time permits, and write story ideas for the media - my take on current events they can use in their daily segments. I write to my students thousands of emails and posts in discussion forums daily. My blogs are mostly informative.. Lacking specific passion or personal divulgence; focused on creating something educational or with the intent to inform a group of people based on questions I'm being asked en-masse... From my students, military men and women asking questions or a way to bulk answer emails that come from hits in the media.. So I find myself writing with a different purpose and perhaps passion tonight..and just maybe this is one of those things you don't put on your blog and write your name to - signed and delivered. But if it's honest and a reflection of yourself, why not? After all isn't that the intent of social networking; of mostly Gen X'ers and Gen Y'ers developing an understanding of one another beyond what we see on MySpace or email? A media host and very savvy business woman shares quite a bit of herself in a blog, so perhaps Ill give it a try tonight.

So here it goes. I spend a lot of time in the air. Not nearly as much time as some of my good friends or those clocking millions of miles per year. I just hit the couple-of-million club on American - just enough to ensure I wont have to pay for the Admirals Club anymore or be put on an upgrade "list". Until recently, the in-air time has been spent writing books; no internet connection. With AA's new GoGo on 767s that has changed, so I can work non stop… in fact I'm typing this and posting it while flying now - I am still shocked they beat Virgin America too it (disappointed actually). Ill have to find new time to write books because flights are out now unless I intentionally take one without internet access.

One of the other things I do on flights when I travel alone (which is over 98% of the time by my most recent calculations) is seat jump… moving around often several times so couples can be together.. Tonight at least after the third seat jump (I usually initiate them when I see "stranded" couples unable to cuddle at 38000 feet), the gentleman was kind enough to move my bag. Ah, I digress.

So.. What to do now besides stay on top of email.. I cannot say "catch up" because I don't go to bed with anything in the inbox, so I'm never really 'behind'. I read. A lot Everything from Medical Science journals (a passion beyond belief) to Pharmaceutical Journals to Economics articles/books/magazines and … perhaps most intriguing these days, political 'stuff'. I believe I'm more interested in the aftermath than I was the election - and I was one of those freakos holding parties for McCain.

Yes I realize the election is over, and no this isn't a blog whining about how "my" candidate didn't win (although he didn't). I find solace in the fact that we're about to enter Hooverville (NOT - on the solace, yes on the Hooverville).. Okay, whatever. We will get past it and get over it (did I just say that?) and have another shot at reality in 4 years. However - both parties are highly highly screwed up and spending is out of control.. I don’t see that changing despite who the president is. Now the balance of power is a concern.. But that is another story for another day. People are too worried about the wrong things so our country will continue down its screwed up path for the foreseeable future. I promise to post if I see that changing. Somehow I think hell will freeze over first. Or at least in 3 years. Or insomnia will take my life and I wont know or care anyway! :)
What I find most ludicrous.. Enraging actually.. Is the anti-feminist feminist. So, to explain a bit, here is my demographic and background. (Funny, I was just telling one of those "highly traveled" friends how one should never admit their demographic on air.. But this is hardly on air now is it - it may be worse!)…

I grew up in a time where the women before me had already fought for my right to vote. The women before me shattered a "few" (billion?) glass ceilings. I was fairly blind to the entire concept of "restriction by gender" when I became a Director of Technology for a world-renowned university and medical center while still a teenager. Sheer motivation, study and perseverance - and asking for what I wanted - landed me where I belonged. I hardly felt undo pressure by anyone to not be anything I wanted, though they did tell me to make the suits a bit more conservative (some things never change).

My parents encouraged me (through no fault of their own - it was their "way" passed down from generations) to settle down and have a family; my grandfather to stay unmarried, stay safe, and go get an education (thanks Gramps!) I had my own way and followed it, probably much to my family's dismay to this day. As I climbed the corporate ladder while running a business on the side (a fairly successful one actually) and going to school full time while learning how to fly and do a bunch of other things I had no business doing, I had no feelings whatsoever of "I wonder what will happen because I'm a woman."

In fact the very first time I experienced it was at a famous private real estate company in Newport Beach, when a new "boss" yelled in my face, a few inches from nose, "no woman working for me will have a PhD". I stood on my tip-toes to get in his face right back and asked if he was "finished". He stormed off obviously frustrated. He subsequently found a bogus reason to "lay me off", and I subsequently found reason to have an amazing severance package. But, again, I digress.

So I started thinking… maybe there is something to this woman thing - being held back by it. But.. It's always felt invigorating.. Powerful.. In its own sense, its own right.. An "anything is possible" feeling.. And I've felt that since childhood despite various people telling me otherwise. Nothing shook it. I was in every sense of the word a nerd.. I did every nerdy thing possible in high school.. Debate team, political clubs.. Science clubs, math clubs, spending my lunchtime playing TradeWars on BBSs on 300 baud modems against all of my male friends (think about the show Big Bang Theory.. That was me.. And not the attractive hot chick working at Friday's)...all the things nerdy girls do.

I grew up a nerd.. Not proud of it at the time, but darn proud of it now. Let's just say I wasn't the one that people were asking to hang out at their parties. In fact I don’t think I went to one party until I was 24. And that was the last one for about 3 years. (yeah yeah…) I had no time in college; I worked my butt off, and worked a full time day job, learning about office politics, leadership, how to manage people 30 years my senior, and eventually running a team and a growing company simultaneously while working on the masters degree. I've had relatively little room for procrastinators in my life.. Very little if any respect for excuses because we have the greatest abilities in this country to do anything we want and we usually hold ourselves back - and many have died for that freedom we have. We all have the ability to change anything if we want it badly enough. As I said, no excuses. My family grew up on the lower income scale - okay exceedingly low - this is something that I'm also very proud of. They stuck to their guns and still managed. Most people think I grew up with a silver spoon in my mouth; nothing could be further from the truth. I'm always amazed at the immediate perceptions of others. I have great respect for individual histories and where someone came from to get to where they are… it's almost never, ever what it seems.

In my family, my father was a democrat and my mother a republican. I don’t think either of them followed politics really; and we didn't have cable so they only heard what hey saw on All My Children and the news on occasion after the Simpsons. I heard them talking about cancelling out one another's' votes.. It was a joke in our family, certainly nothing serious. My father instilled the obligation to vote because others died for that right.

Yes, I am a social conservative on abortion, on not randomly modifying our constitution… and more to the point, I am no less a woman for believing these things. But I also care most about fiscal policy because it can impact how we can progress in life -- the government takes our money - I want them to be accountable with it. If they wont be, I want it back. I can use it in better places than they can. Ill pay to have the 7 feet of road paved outside my home and call it a day.
A bit of oversimplification, but you get the point. Some how growing up even in my teens I got this strong sense of "Republicanism" - not the type that cares what two consenting adults do alone at home - in fact I am a conservative Republican with a bit of an edge (yes, that is the "new Republican".. My demographic..) but the type that cared about being diligent and making life what you want it to be.

I don’t mean the social conservatism that some pundits are saying is the death of the Republican party. I don't know how it occurred but I equated Democrat with "you don’t have to work hard and can piggyback off of others". Perhaps the freebies and handouts the democrats seemed to favor didn't resonate with me - I wanted no handout - I wanted and want to work my own behind off to get anything or anywhere - I have a hard time even letting anyone else buy dinner. I had an opportunity at an easier life full of exciting things with a very handsome suitor and - after several dates - I cut the relationship off because he was too wealthy, and I'd never feel that I made it on my own. I have since learned a bit more balance..we are all interconnected humans and we need each other .. But for support and friendship and an exchange of passions - not for all the reasons he thought he could provide.

So throughout this election cycle, I've watched with great interest the path of Sarah Palin. I remember sitting in bed in California after a long night of insomnia.. Actually all of my insomnia nights are long. I was listening to McCain's VP pick on Fox News. "holy…. What a BRILLIANT move." I had read about her before in the Weekly Standard. Yes I thought.. she appeals to the regular folks, and she's a Christian conservative with values that fought the beauracracy and the male dominance and even her own party.. I don’t like hunting or killing animals or cooking or the things she seems to enjoy doing, but I respect her for shattering so many barriers. I thought it sealed the deal (boy was I wrong).. A kick-butt woman in my view. And so it began, conversations with my friends (most of whom, believe it or not, are liberals to a very hard core degree.. But liberals that usually respect that others can have convincingly intelligent opinions that don’t necessary agree with their own).

But something was different this time. There was this "spewness" of raw anger and hate towards Palin, which made me want to defend her more.. I always, always defend the underdog. I hate watching people get beat up. But it wasn't from men.. They made reasonable comments like "she's unqualified" or she's "not ready to be commander in chief should something happen to McCain". Agreed here. But.. What about the HATE coming from women? I remember a specific quote from Wendy Doniger, a self-proclaimed feminist at the University of Chicago. Her words? "Her greatest hypocrisy is her pretense that she is a woman." So all this time I thought sexism wasn't going to hold us all back anymore.. Until.. A woman, a "feminist", indicated that she was in fact not a woman.. I assumed this is based on her choice to have a Down Syndrome baby (how dare we not kill a baby) and her decision to go to church (and believe in God too - has anyone crunched the numbers of the statistical possibilities that we are created by randomness?? I have! It was a high school project!) and raise a family of 5 (6 if you include the hubby) and lead a life chalk full of hard decisions, fighting tooth and nail against establishment, while still maintaining her role as a mother and a wife. Wow.

I must admit, she was a bit inspirational in this regard. One of the many reasons I don’t have children is a decision to put my career first despite harsh criticism from mostly liberal people (ironically enough). Replicating my DNA has been low on the totem pole of priorities. That may change in the future, but given my "demo" this is where I’m at in life. But here was a woman that actually seems to be managing it all just fine.. And doing great. Perhaps it is possible after all.
What gets me though is why, after all the years of fighting like crazy to shatter glass ceilings, so-called "liberal" women who are all about women being able to make a free choice only respect the choices if they are the same choices they would make. Doniger wasn't the only one - I heard this from many, many people. "Sarah isn't a woman". "Palin has no values." (aka not MY values) That isn't feminism and it isn't liberalism.. It is narcissism. If you are a liberal woman you can value a woman's right to choose - but you must also respect her choice if it's pro LIFE.

Perhaps that is why I've not ever considered myself a feminist - I am all for women's rights - but all women's rights not just some. Women and men aren't equal. Men in general are better at some things; women are better in general at other things - with exceptions to the rules of course. Maybe this makes me not a woman too. In that case Ill take it. This is all about chemistry and biology and not discrimination. I must say that this cycle has made me reflect back on my career.. And it was almost always, always the women who hurt one another.. Who didn't help, who did the damage to each other and one another's' reputation.. Maybe that is why I always enjoyed managing and working for men. The men hung in there, helped one another.. NS and helped me, the woman, too. But not because I am a woman - because I am a competent individual that happens to be a woman.

Everything was competition with women. Perhaps it's Sarah-envy; perhaps it's the mere thought of someone with a different view in a position of power - but women - if we hit another glass ceiling, you can thank the liberal feminists for it. This is the first time I've seen such wide spread efforts against women. Now I know what all those chicks before me fought so hard for. Thanks "guys". :)